Ammonium sulfate, 10 November 2026: standard grade eased at the top of the export range while compacted held, with the nitrogen complex and the inspection calendar pulling in opposite directions

Standard caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate was assessed at $210-215/t fob China on 10 November, $5 lower at the high end than the $210-220 of the previous day, with the low end unchanged. No seller has cut a price to make a deal, and offers at $215-220/t fob are still standing. One supplier is quoting $212/t fob Shandong for standard caprolactam-grade material this week. Buying interest was described as subdued, with most buyers waiting for a steadier nitrogen market before committing to December cargoes.

A range that narrows from the top usually means buyers stopped paying the upper number rather than sellers going out to find volume. Traders report that enquiries this week have been mostly for specification and documentation details, with few firm bids against December shipment.

Nitrogen benchmarks

The wider nitrogen complex drifted lower on the same day. Egyptian granular for Europe fell $7.50/t to $500-520/t fob, Middle East granular fell $5/t to $430-440/t fob, Brazilian granular fell $2.50/t to $460-475/t cfr, and the Nola barge fell $3/st to $425/st. Affordability ratios against corn and wheat have come back to early-August levels on thin activity. Ammonium sulfate is bought as nitrogen and as sulphur, and in compound fertilizer it substitutes against urea on the nitrogen unit, so a $3-7/t move across the complex leaves a seller quoting the top of a $10 wide range against a reference that has already shifted. The lower offers were already close to the floor, which is why they did not move.

Traders also note a second drag that is specific to China. A buyer comparing an ammonium sulfate cargo with a urea cargo in the same week is looking at two products whose export economics are not remotely similar, and that tends to slow decisions on both rather than bring forward a purchase.

Cost and quotation

Caprolactam-grade material in Shandong was assessed at ¥1,240-1,250/t ex-works on 10 November, which converts to roughly $202-204/t fob after export costs. Against the export quotation of $210-215/t fob, that leaves a gap of $6-13/t between the cost of putting the material on a ship and the price it is offered at. Producers describe the export quote as domestic cost, freight and a narrow commercial margin, which is why the top of the range is sensitive to a small shift in the nitrogen complex while the bottom stays anchored to Shandong and Shanxi costs.

Buyers building a twelve-month input cost model tend to find this easier to work with than a price that responds to administrative allocation as well as to cost. The amsul number moves with the underlying cost base; the other can step by tens of dollars when policy changes rather than drift by two.

Standard and compacted

Compacted material held at $225-235/t fob, unchanged on the week, while standard lost $5 at the top. The compacting premium is therefore intact at $10-25/t over standard, and in practice nearer the top of that band for material that already carries inspection. This is the same two-tier structure that has been building since late October, and the inspection calendar is what drives it: compactors who are not self-regulated cannot apply for export customs inspection after the middle of November. A standard-grade cargo is a producer’s problem, while a compacted cargo is a compactor’s problem, and part of the compacting sector is losing the ability to file. Buyers who need compacted tonnes in December are bidding for a smaller pool than the producer list suggests, which is why that end of the market has not followed standard grade down.

Regional demand

Turkey is the only sized requirement currently visible, with an importer seeking around 20,000t of standard caprolactam-grade for December shipment. That is a modest parcel, but it lands in the tightest part of the inspection calendar, which makes the price it clears at more informative than its tonnage. Brazil is covered rather than hungry: compacted eased $5 at the top of the range to $255-260/t cfr after a heavy November programme, and there is no urgency in the enquiries reaching Chinese sellers. Standard caprolactam-grade into Brazil sits at $245-250/t cfr, and the compacted premium over standard into that market has compressed rather than widened.

Southeast Asia held at $250-260/t cfr, but the support there is freight rather than demand. On a $210 product, a $35-48/t freight bill for a handysize parcel is a 17 to 23 percent load, and that is why a flat fob has not produced a flat cfr. Europe remains the structural short and the reason Chinese tonnes keep moving west: standard grade firmed to €326-348/t fob northwest Europe and granular to €393-416/t fob on the latest weekly comparison, both tracking gas and higher CAN values rather than Asian signals, with production curtailments still in effect. It is a market paying a premium for prompt cargoes and is where the next firm enquiry is more likely to come from than Brazil.

Forward indicators

The top of the standard range is the first thing to watch. A Turkish deal at $215/t fob would confirm that sellers are holding and buyers are simply absent, while a deal at $210 would suggest the quiet market was concealing a seller who needed the tonnage. The nitrogen complex matters almost as much, since ammonium sulfate did not fall on its own balance sheet and would recover on a floor in the wider complex without any change in amsul supply, whether or not Indian enquiry materialises after the Diwali break.

The compacting pool in December is the third indicator. The inspection cut-off is a rule and enforcement is the market, so traders are watching whether inspected compacted tonnes become scarce in the second half of November and whether the premium over standard widens past $25/t. Shanxi steel-grade and Inner Mongolia material set the floor under everything else; a continued slide there alongside a stable fob would confirm the discount is trapped domestically by inspection eligibility rather than passing into export offers.

Prices as assessed on 10 November 2026. Market information from our own trading desks and trade sources; figures are indicative and move daily. Ammonium sulfate is offered FOB, CFR and CIF, with payment terms agreed per order and confirmed in the sales contract.