China Ammonium Sulfate Market Splits Into Two Tiers

Compacted material has eased to $210-225/t since this report was published, and the domestic ex-works price has slipped below the export assessment for the first time this cycle, while standard caprolactam-grade still sits at $210-215/t fob. For the current read, see the 9 October market update. The structural analysis below still stands.

Export-grade caprolactam material is trading around $210-215/t fob and firming, while tonnage that does not clear export inspection is flowing back into the domestic market and capping inland prices. The domestic spot benchmark sits at ¥1,313/t, up 37.8% year on year, and mainstream producers lifted ex-works quotations repeatedly through September. Traders report that domestic and export quotations are now being negotiated on separate bases, with buyers comparing two different commodities rather than one price series.

Two price levels

Shandong caprolactam-grade at ¥1,310/t ex-works is worth roughly $212/t fob against an export assessment of $210-215/t fob, and at that level an exporter has little spread to concede. The all-grade spot benchmark near ¥1,313/t blends caprolactam-grade with coking-grade and steel-grade material, and the same inspection policy has been pushing those two halves of the blend in opposite directions. Producers say the domestic and export books are increasingly priced off separate constraints, and several describe quoting the two parcels off different grade slates in the same week.

Domestic market

The domestic benchmark held around ¥1,313/t through early October, a gain of 37.76% year on year, and mainstream producers raised ex-factory quotations repeatedly through September rather than testing the market once. Caprolactam-based producers kept bulk offers on a gradually firmer footing through mid-month, and buyers followed the movement rather than resisting it. Sellers describe the sequence as a series of small, repeated lifts rather than one repricing, which left little room for buyers to wait out a correction.

September is traditionally the window in which overseas buyers build positions for the northern-hemisphere season, and this year the demand was genuine restocking rather than speculative positioning. Domestic compound fertilizer plants and granular or compacted ammonium sulfate manufacturers bought actively to cover their own forward commitments, while export-oriented granulators — the plants that take crystalline material, compact it into 2-4mm granules and ship it to Brazil — were the most active buyers of all because their order books were full. Traders report that much of that buying was tied to committed Brazilian programmes rather than to open speculative length.

Several plants that had been through maintenance shutdowns had not recovered to full operating rates by the end of the quarter, and the tonnage returning from those restarts arrives gradually rather than at once, so availability of prompt bulk material has been thinner than the price level alone would suggest. Domestic Chinese offtake is not confined to agriculture: compound fertilizer producers, potassium persulfate and other industrial chemical manufacturers, rare earth mining operations and leather processors deliming hides all take material. Traders describe that spread of end-uses as giving domestic values more independent supports than a fertiliser-only market would have.

Ammonium sulfate produced as a by-product of caprolactam has progressively become the dominant source of supply in China, and caprolactam itself is trading around ¥14,109/t, up 62.9% year on year, which keeps those plants running hard and adds by-product tonnage with a lag of quarters rather than weeks. Producers say that is a genuine loosening force on supply over the medium term. It also shifts the market’s quality centre of gravity toward caprolactam-grade material, the grade that clears export inspection most easily, and that is the other half of the two-tier structure.

The inspection gate

On 16 July 2026 China’s customs authority added ammonium sulfate to the list of goods subject to mandatory pre-shipment export inspection under Announcement No. 97 of 2026, covering HS codes 3102.21.0000 and 3102.29.0000, and the regulatory condition “B” now applies to both. The previous exemption-and-release arrangement has been replaced by a sequence in which an exporter applies to its local customs office for statutory inspection, submits to on-site verification and sampling, and obtains a release certificate before completing customs declaration. For a trade that had run for years on exemption, traders describe that as a structural change in how tonnage reaches a port rather than a procedural detail.

Caprolactam-grade material, with low moisture, low impurities and consistent particle size, clears inspection readily and holds a premium in the export market, while coking-grade and steel-grade material, with variable moisture and impurity profiles, is frequently failed or delayed and is diverted back inland. Export buyers therefore see a smaller pool of compliant tonnage and pay more for it, and domestic coking-grade sellers find themselves competing with tonnage that can no longer leave. Traders say neither effect shows up in a single price series, which is one reason the fob number on its own has been a poor guide to inland levels this quarter.

A further allocation of inspection quota was made in mid-September, which eased the immediate bottleneck for qualifying suppliers but left export volumes running on allocated inspection quota rather than on demand alone. With 2026 tracking below last year’s record export pace, sellers expect fourth-quarter quota releases to tighten rather than loosen. Buyers and traders are consequently treating the allocation calendar as a supply variable in its own right, alongside plant operating rates and Brazilian offtake.

Cost inputs

Sulphuric acid, the principal raw material for synthetic-route ammonium sulfate, has traded at low levels across both 60-day and three-month windows, giving synthetic producers a stable cost base that removes both the risk of a cost-driven spike and any urgency to discount. Caprolactam is expensive at ¥14,109/t ex-works, far above last year, and where caprolactam runs hard, by-product ammonium sulfate supply rises. Traders describe that by-product response as the one clearly bearish input in the picture, and it operates with a lag measured in quarters rather than weeks.

Domestic liquid ammonia around ¥2,540/t, down 23.7% year on year, has eased the nitrogen cost base relative to last year without translating into lower ammonium sulfate prices. Traders attribute that to ammonium sulfate being priced off its own supply constraints — inspection quota, plant operating rates and compaction demand — rather than off nitrogen replacement value. The same pattern was visible in September, when ex-factory quotations rose repeatedly even as feedstock costs stayed soft, according to several Shandong sellers.

Q4 quota

Allocation rounds, not order books, decide how much Chinese tonnage can physically leave, which is why a firm domestic market and a thin export offer stack can coexist into the fourth quarter. Brazilian demand remains the engine: compacted material is assessed at $250-255/t cfr with northern Arc markets heard up to $260/t cfr, though enquiries have been slower to convert than the flow suggests. Buyers are testing levels rather than committing, and sellers report little concluded business at the upper end of that range.

Brazilian buying supports granulation margins, granulation margins drive compactor restocking, and compactor restocking sets the bids at Chinese domestic auctions. Break any link in that chain and domestic prices move within days, which is the mechanism traders point to when domestic auction results firm ahead of the published export assessment. Compaction capacity is a separate constraint from material supply, and crystalline availability does not by itself guarantee granule availability for Brazilian programmes.

After the National Day holiday, export volumes are widely expected to increase as inspection workflows normalise, but into a quota-constrained quarter that increase is unlikely to translate into softer export prices. Buyers with fixed loading windows have been starting conversations earlier than the price signal alone would suggest, according to traders following the allocation rounds. Some are also asking suppliers to confirm the grade and documentation position before fixing a load plan, since inspection and documentation requirements have changed more than once this year.

Buyer checklist

When buying for export from China, the number governing cost is the fob assessment and the inspection-quota position behind it, while domestic Chinese material is governed by an inland benchmark held down by diverted export tonnage that a supplier may not be able to move. Traders say the two have not been converging, so buyers are separating the markets in their own analysis rather than assuming an inland discount will feed through to export levels. The inspection regime has made the physical quality of an offer more economically consequential than it used to be, since moisture, free acid, particle size and water-insoluble content decide whether a lot clears inspection and clearance decides whether that lot can be exported at all.

Buyers are asking for the lot COA before agreeing a level, and those whose requirement is granular are being told to secure the granulation slot rather than assume crystalline availability implies granule availability. A low inland coking-grade price is sometimes read as an export opportunity, but under the current inspection regime that is exactly the material most likely to be blocked at the inspection stage. Moisture and free acid levels that pass in a domestic sale are frequently the ones that fail pre-shipment sampling, so a low inland quote does not carry over into an export parcel.

In a quota-rationed export market, availability moves before price, and buyers with a fixed loading window are starting conversations earlier than the price signal alone would suggest. Exporters, for their part, report little room to concede while domestic ex-works and export fob sit close to parity. Traders report that allocation announcements, rather than grade assessments, have been setting the timing of offers in recent weeks.

Watch list

Into the fourth quarter, export fob is firm behind a rationed quota, domestic caprolactam-grade is supported by cost and parity, and domestic coking-grade remains capped by diverted tonnage. The variables in the table above are the ones sellers say they are tracking week to week, with inspection quota releases and domestic coking-grade auctions carrying the most weight for near-term levels. Brazilian enquiry-to-order conversion and maintenance restarts reaching full rates are the two items most likely to change that picture before year-end, according to traders following the Chinese market.

Sourcing ammonium sulfate from China

The grades discussed here — standard, compacted granular and crystalline — cover the main forms in which ammonium sulfate leaves China, with Qingdao and Tianjin the usual loading ports. Inspection and documentation requirements have changed more than once this year, so buyers planning a shipment window should confirm which grades and documents currently apply before fixing a load plan.

• Ammonium Sulfate — the full grade range and typical specifications
• Granular Ammonium Sulfate — for direct soil application; the grade Brazilian programmes specify
• Crystalline Ammonium Sulfate — for compound fertilizer blending and industrial use
• How to import ammonium sulfate from China — documentation, inspection and shipping, step by step

Tell us the grade and destination you are working with and we will share the specification and documentation details relevant to that route.

On pricing in this article. The figures above are indicative market assessment levels for the grades and bases referenced, drawn from our own market monitoring and information from our own trading desks. They are not offers and do not represent a quotation for any specific parcel, origin or shipment window. Ammonium sulfate prices vary with grade, production source, packaging, parcel size, destination and freight, and are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.