Ammonium Sulfate Market Report — Week 41, 2026

This is our market report for the week of 12-16 October 2026 — the point at which the Chinese export price and the domestic price stopped moving together. Fob China firmed to $210-220/t for standard and $220-230/t for compacted, while the Shandong domestic benchmark fell to ¥1,230/t, about $200/t fob equivalent. Sellers describe the export premium as having reopened on rationed tonnage rather than any surge in demand, with most allocation holders already sold out for the near term.

The week in numbers

All figures are indicative market assessment levels from our own monitoring, not offers.

Export premium

Through September the domestic ex-works price and the export assessment sat close enough that an exporter had no margin to give away, which is why offers went up and stayed up. This week they separated again. Shandong caprolactam-grade fell to ¥1,230/t ex-works, converting to roughly $200/t fob, river producers lowered caprolactam-grade to ¥1,200/t, and the export assessment moved up to $210-220/t.

That leaves a $10-20/t export premium where a fortnight ago there was near-parity, and traders attribute it to thin offers rather than overseas buyers paying up: most allocation holders are already sold out of export volumes. A price that rises while the domestic market falls is being set by availability, not by demand. Sellers expect it to disappear quickly once a new allocation round is issued.

Traded range

Two cargoes this week bracket the range, and traders treat both as more useful than the assessment. A river supplier sold 5,000t of standard at $200-205/t fob for mid-October shipment to Southeast Asia, at or just below the low end of the assessment, which is what physical standard material clears at when a seller needs to move it. At the other end, one supplier was asking $230-235/t fob for standard and $240/t fob for compacted, with nothing confirmed at those levels, and the gap between $205 and $235 for the same grade in the same week is the clearest measure of how thin the offer stack is.

Compacted was the stronger side of the market. A river supplier sold 10,000t at $236/t fob for November shipment to Brazil, and compacted fob China was assessed up to $220-230/t on continued Brazilian demand and higher standard values. Those prints are the ones other suppliers are quoting against this week.

Regional demand

Brazil remains the demand engine and traders report no let-up, with compacted trending higher to $250-265/t cfr, suppliers reluctant to engage below $255/t cfr later in the week and some holding offers at $260/t cfr and above. Buying interest concentrated in Paranaguá, where participants expect second-corn-crop requirements to keep importers active. Stronger sentiment across the global urea complex added support, and Southeast Asia moved up to $250-260/t cfr on higher Chinese offers, though freight is doing much of the work rather than product value: a 6,000-8,000t cargo from China to Southeast Asia was heard at $43-46/t, while north China to Malaysia was quoted as high as $50/t. Rising freight lifts delivered prices even when the fob does not move, which flatters cfr assessments and compresses netbacks.

Europe remains the tightest link in the chain. Standard caprolactam-grade was assessed at €275-290/t fob northwest Europe and granular at €335-360/t fob, with Chinese compacted indicated at €360-365/t fca. Spot activity was limited and concentrated in southern Europe, with many participants holding off ahead of this week’s industry conference in Prague, while firmer urea and natural gas values continued to underpin offers and some producers held standard grade at €290/t fob, though liquidity at the top of that range stayed scarce. Higher freight into some Mediterranean destinations is eating into netbacks and capping how far suppliers can push.

Turkey continues to absorb Chinese tonnage, with three cargoes scheduled — one to the Cenal power plant around 18 October, one to Aliaga on 27 October, and a further cargo of about 60,000t on 2 November — and another vessel carrying roughly 30,000t anchored in the Bosporus without a declared final destination. Turkey took around 1.09mn t of Chinese ammonium sulfate from January to August, against about 1.03mn t a year earlier. The US was flat by comparison: Nola barge prices were unchanged on muted activity as farmers prioritised harvest, and corn futures fell after the October US supply-and-demand estimates lifted the US production forecast to 407.3mn t for 2026-27.

Sulphur costs

Sulphur remains the swing input for synthetic-route material. Even if Tampa settles at $550-650/lt, that is $55-155/lt below the previous settlement — a material cut, in the words of one trader. Sulphur markets are still expected to stay elevated on a historical basis even after it lands.

Cost relief reaches synthetic-route producers first, while the grades that dominate Chinese export supply are constrained by allocation rather than by production cost. Traders therefore expect the lower sulphur number to show up in negotiation leverage before it shows up in quoted prices. Our production source guide explains why the routes do not substitute for one another.

Buying considerations

In a market where sold-out suppliers are the norm, buyers are being told to establish allocation before price: confirmed tonnage for a loading window is worth more than a $5/t concession from someone who cannot ship. A rising fob against a falling domestic price is described by traders as a scarcity signal rather than a demand signal. It argues for locking volume early and expecting the spread to compress once the next allocation round lands.

Grade has to be matched to destination, since Brazil takes compacted, Southeast Asia and ANZ blending programmes take crystalline, and Europe is short of standard specifically, with the grades pricing on different bases and the discounts not interchangeable. Every cfr figure should also be treated as parcel-specific. With China-Southeast Asia freight moving between $43 and $50/t depending on origin port and parcel size, a delivered number quoted for one cargo does not transfer to another.

Domestic values have fallen for several consecutive weeks, and traders caution against assuming the slide stops at the border. If allocation is released in volume, export fob has room to follow them down. Buyers with a fixed window are being advised to secure the tonne they need rather than speculate on the timing.

Next week’s watch list

The base case into next week, as sellers describe it, is an export fob held up by allocation scarcity, domestic values still soft beneath it, and Brazil and Europe firm. None of that resolves until a new round is announced. The timing of that announcement remains the variable every desk is watching.

Sourcing ammonium sulfate from China

The grades discussed here — standard, compacted granular and crystalline — cover the main forms in which ammonium sulfate leaves China, with Qingdao and Tianjin the usual loading ports. Inspection and documentation requirements have changed more than once this year, so buyers planning a shipment window should confirm which grades and documents currently apply before fixing a load plan.

• Ammonium Sulfate — the full grade range and typical specifications
• Granular Ammonium Sulfate — for direct soil application and bulk blending
• Crystalline Ammonium Sulfate — for compound fertilizer production and industrial use
• How to import ammonium sulfate from China — documentation, inspection and shipping, step by step

Tell us the grade and destination you are working with and we will share the specification and documentation details relevant to that route.

On pricing in this article. The figures above are indicative market assessment levels for the grades and bases referenced as at 15 October 2026, drawn from our own market monitoring and information from our own trading desks. They are not offers and do not represent a quotation for any specific parcel, origin or shipment window. Ammonium sulfate prices vary with grade, production source, packaging, parcel size, destination and freight, and are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.