Ammonium Sulfate Market Report — Week 40, 2026

This is our market report for the week of 5-9 October 2026 — the first full week back after China’s National Day holiday. Producers said the floor under the market moved rather than the roof, with standard caprolactam-grade fob China slipping to $207-215/t, Shandong ex-works breaking ¥1,280/t and Middle East sulphur contract prices cut $45-70/t. With no second export allocation announced, sellers said the decline stayed orderly rather than turning into a scramble for buyers.

The week in numbers

What drove the week

China’s market was shut from 1-7 October, and participants returning after the holiday reported fresh trading largely stalled through the week, with most desks occupied by quota paperwork rather than new business. Sellers describe the binding constraint as administrative, not commercial. Domestic values led the move, as they have through most of the quarter: Shandong caprolactam-grade went ¥1,310 → ¥1,290 → ¥1,280/t ex-works across the first two weeks of October, a third consecutive leg down that has pulled the benchmark close to the export assessment.

Urea is not ammonium sulfate and the two do not substitute in the field, but buyers and traders treat them as one nitrogen complex when sentiment shifts. Through the week, participants reported urea indications softening across Egypt, the Middle East, Brazil and Nola, pulling expectations for every other nitrogen product down in the same conversation. The forward tone was lower even where prompt numbers had not moved, enough to make ammonium sulfate buyers hold back and recheck their bids.

A handful of force majeure declarations kept prompt supply tighter than the price level alone would suggest. Availability, in the accounts we hear, is constrained less by weak production economics than by declared disruptions at individual plants. That cuts both ways: it props up the offer stack, and it makes delivery reliability a point of difference between suppliers this quarter.

Sulphur cost floor

Middle East producers cut October sulphur contract prices by $45-70/t, with ADNOC setting its OSP for Indian subcontinent cargoes at $890/t fob Ruwais, down $70 from September, QatarEnergy falling to $835/t and Kuwait’s KPC to $820/t, both down $45. Traders attribute the cut to affordability rather than supply: phosphate producers, the largest sulphur consumers, pushed back hard enough to force it. The same signal showed up inside China, where spot sulphur fell to around ¥7,100/t on the 8th and port inventories rose to about 971,000t, up 48,000t from end-September.

Sulphur plus ammonia sets the production-cost floor for synthetic-route material, the tonnage that fills the bottom of the offer stack when by-product grades are tight. That floor has just dropped materially for anyone producing by that route. Our production source guide explains why the routes do not substitute for one another, and why a falling synthetic floor matters most precisely when by-product supply is rationed by paperwork.

Regional demand

Europe is described by traders as the firmest market at the moment, and the tightness is structural. Standard-grade availability has dwindled, sentiment is well supported, and granular activity is quieter. The EU’s ammonium sulfate import quota of 413,000t is exhausted after multiple Chinese vessels discharged at Constanta, Klaipeda and La Pallice in September, and the 6.5% import tariff is back in effect with key origins such as Egypt exempt; one further Chinese cargo, around 20,000t, is expected at Antwerp on 12 October. Against exhausted quota, restored tariff and thin standard-grade supply, Chinese compacted is still clearing at €355-365/t fca with deals traded, well above what the same material fetches delivered into Brazil, with expectations of higher replacement costs building rather than fading.

Brazilian buying continued without much urgency, according to traders, with compacted assessed at $245-255/t cfr and the bottom of the range set by a few lower offers while most October-November indications sat at $250-255/t. Some suppliers still targeted $260/t and above, though nothing was confirmed at those levels. Buying interest was limited, pressured by softer urea and by uncertainty over inspection approvals, and farmers are watching the weather — excessive rain in the south, delayed moisture in central areas — rather than the price screen.

Southeast Asia has entered its seasonal lull, with standard held at $240-250/t cfr on limited Chinese offers and most of the region at the tail end of its nitrogen application window. Traders report little fresh enquiry. Freight from China to Southeast Asia for a 6,000-8,000t bulk vessel was unchanged at $43-46/t, which leaves delivered numbers there moving more on freight than on product value.

Buying considerations

Buyers with a fixed loading window are being advised to establish allocation before price: a supplier who can confirm approved tonnage is worth more than one offering $5/t less and unable to ship, in a quarter shaped by force majeure and quota rationing. Domestic Chinese values and export fob are moving together now, which turns the usual “domestic is rising, so export will follow” argument the other way. Traders describe the two signals as converged, so waiting for the home market to lift the export quote is likely to disappoint.

The cost drop is not being read as an immediate price cut. Sulphur feeds through to synthetic-route material first, while the by-product grades that dominate Chinese export supply are constrained by allocation rather than cost, so traders expect the relief to show up in negotiation leverage before it reaches quoted numbers. Grade has to be matched to destination: Brazil wants compacted or granular, Southeast Asia and ANZ blending programmes want crystalline, and Europe is short of standard specifically, with each pricing on a different basis.

Every cfr figure in this market should be treated as parcel-specific. Freight remains the most volume-sensitive component of delivered pricing, so a Brazil cfr for one parcel size does not transfer to another. The gap between the lowest and highest offers this week was already $10/t before freight was even discussed, according to traders.

Next week’s watch list

The base case into next week, as sellers describe it, is a soft domestic market, an export fob drifting lower, and Europe holding firm in isolation. None of that resolves until the allocation question is settled. Whether a second round arrives remains the variable every desk is watching.

Sourcing ammonium sulfate from China

The grades discussed here — standard, compacted granular and crystalline — cover the main forms in which ammonium sulfate leaves China, with Qingdao and Tianjin the usual loading ports. Inspection and documentation requirements have changed more than once this year, so buyers planning a shipment window should confirm which grades and documents currently apply before fixing a load plan.

• Ammonium Sulfate — the full grade range and typical specifications
• Granular Ammonium Sulfate — for direct soil application; the grade Brazilian programmes specify
• Crystalline Ammonium Sulfate — for compound fertilizer blending and industrial use
• How to import ammonium sulfate from China — documentation, inspection and shipping, step by step

Tell us the grade and destination you are working with and we will share the specification and documentation details relevant to that route.

On pricing in this article. The figures above are indicative market assessment levels for the grades and bases referenced, drawn from our own market monitoring and information from our own trading desks. They are not offers and do not represent a quotation for any specific parcel, origin or shipment window. Ammonium sulfate prices vary with grade, production source, packaging, parcel size, destination and freight, and are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.